闻泰科技：Entering 2025 with a clean slate,with the worst left behind

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of RMB52, implying a 56.6% upside from the current price of RMB33.20 [1][3] Core View - Wingtech is transitioning to a semiconductor-focused company, positioning itself for long-term value creation despite short-term financial setbacks [1] - The company expects a net loss of RMB3.5-4.55bn in FY24, primarily due to one-off impairments related to the sale of its ODM business, write-down on deferred tax assets, and goodwill impairments [1] - The semiconductor business showed resilience in FY24, with sequential revenue growth in 2Q and 3Q, and single-digit YoY growth in 4Q despite seasonal softness [7] - Wingtech's ODM business improved in 4Q, turning profitable excluding impairments, but remains a low-margin segment [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow 18.1% YoY in FY24 to RMB72.3bn, with further growth of 10.9% and 5.8% projected for FY25 and FY26, respectively [2] - Gross margin declined to 10.4% in FY24E from 16.1% in FY23A, but is expected to recover to 13.2% and 14.8% in FY25E and FY26E [2] - Net profit is forecasted to rebound strongly in FY25E, growing 186.4% YoY to RMB2.61bn, followed by 45.0% growth in FY26E to RMB3.78bn [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase 155.6% YoY in FY25E to RMB4.18bn, driven by the company's transformation and semiconductor focus [2] Business Segments - The ODM business accounted for 17% market share in 1H24, ranking third among top players in China, down 3ppts YoY [7] - Semiconductor revenue grew sequentially in FY24, with 2Q and 3Q showing 10% and 15% QoQ growth, respectively [7] - China contributed ~40% of total semiconductor revenue in FY24, offsetting overseas weakness due to inventory correction [7] - Auto revenue currently accounts for 60% of total semiconductor revenue, with overseas OEMs expected to resume restocking in 2025 [7] Valuation and Outlook - Wingtech's valuation is expected to benefit from increasing semiconductor revenue share, robust domestic auto demand, and a re-rating opportunity as it transforms into a semi-centric company [7] - The target price of RMB52 corresponds to 24.8x FY25E P/E, based on unchanged financial forecasts [7] - The company's market cap stands at RMB41.26bn, with an average 3-month turnover of RMB1.68bn [3]