MANGO(300413) 国元证券·2025-01-20 09:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an operating profit of between 1.666 billion to 2.026 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 1.250 billion to 1.610 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 54.72% to 64.85% due to changes in tax policies [1]. - Membership revenue has surpassed 5 billion yuan, showing an 18% year-on-year growth, which is a key driver for the company's performance [2]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the one-time adjustment of deferred tax assets and changes in tax incentives, with expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being 0.77, 1.19, and 1.34 yuan respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.66%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 15.012 billion yuan, a 2.63% increase [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 1.43776 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.56% compared to 2023 [5]. Membership and Advertising Business - The membership business has achieved a revenue of over 5 billion yuan, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall performance [2]. - The advertising business has also shown positive growth, with an 8% increase in the second half of the year compared to the first half [2]. Content Production - The company’s content production is entering a new cycle, with successful series such as "Little Alley Family" and "National Color and Fragrance" performing well [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - Due to the adjustment of deferred tax assets and tax policy changes, the profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been revised, with expected EPS of 0.77, 1.19, and 1.34 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 35, 22, and 20 times [3].