BUCID(600266) HTSC·2025-01-20 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.43 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.97-9.98 billion for 2024, which is lower than previous expectations due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [1][2]. - Despite the anticipated losses, the core investment thesis remains unchanged, with potential improvements in performance driven by project turnover, sales recovery, and urban village renovations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The primary reasons for the expected losses in 2024 include significant impairment losses on real estate projects due to market adjustments and lower profit margins from the company's project turnover [2][11]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised down to -8.65 billion, 5.16 billion, and 8.40 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting substantial adjustments [4][12]. Project Turnover and Sales Improvement - The company has a substantial amount of resources awaiting turnover, particularly from urban renovation projects, which are expected to contribute positively to net profit in the future [3][4]. - The company has maintained a land acquisition intensity of 31% in 2024, with new land parcels acquired in both Beijing and Shanghai, which are anticipated to yield sales results in 2025 [3][4]. Valuation and Market Conditions - The valuation method has shifted from PE to PB due to the volatility in earnings caused by impairment losses, with a reasonable PB for 2025 set at 0.67 times [4][12]. - The average market conditions for comparable companies suggest a PB of 0.67 times, aligning with the company's target price [4][13].