Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future growth potential in the high-end beauty market [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading high-end beauty brand in China, with significant growth opportunities ahead. It has established a strong market presence and is expected to benefit from the rising demand for premium beauty products [12][19]. - The beauty market in China is projected to grow steadily, with high-end skincare and makeup segments expected to outperform mass-market categories. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for high-end skincare and makeup is forecasted at 9.6% and 10.8%, respectively, from 2023 to 2028 [35][36]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 40.5 billion, 53.1 billion, and 67.0 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 31.0%, and 26.2% [6][10]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 9.4 billion, 12.8 billion, and 16.0 billion RMB, with growth rates of 42.2%, 35.6%, and 25.1% [6][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 28, 21, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][10]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as the only domestic brand among the top ten high-end beauty groups in China, ranking seventh with a market share of 1.8% as of 2023 [19][40]. - The flagship brand, MAOGEPING, is the only domestic brand in the top fifteen high-end beauty brands in China, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [19][40]. - The company has a robust channel strategy, with a balanced contribution from both online and offline sales. As of 2024 H1, offline and online channels contributed 50.9% and 49.1% to total revenue, respectively [45][48]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to utilize the funds raised from its IPO primarily for expanding sales channels and brand building. This includes opening new stores, upgrading existing ones, and enhancing online marketing efforts [32][34]. - The company aims to open approximately 30 new counters annually in China and 2-4 overseas, alongside upgrading 70-100 existing counters each year [11][32]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has a diverse product portfolio with 387 SKUs as of 2024 H1, focusing on high-end makeup and skincare products. The average price of its cushion foundation is notably higher than that of leading domestic competitors, allowing it to avoid the crowded mass-market segment [9][11]. - The company has a strong emphasis on research and development, with an average of 75 new products launched annually from 2021 to 2024 H1 [9][11].
毛戈平：国内领先的高端美妆品牌，未来增长空间广阔