BANK OF CHANGSHA(601577) 平安证券·2025-01-20 14:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Bank of Changsha (601577 SH) [1] Core Views - Bank of Changsha's profitability is recovering with net profit growth of 6 92% YoY in 2024 supported by revenue resilience and provision replenishment [9] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve with NPL ratio declining to 1 15% at end-2024 while maintaining stable risk coverage with provision coverage ratio at 314% [9] - Retail business potential is promising given the bank's strong local presence in Hunan and ongoing exploration of retail business models [9] - The successful issuance of perpetual bonds in Q3 2024 has strengthened the bank's capital base supporting long-term development [9] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue grew 4 57% YoY to RMB26 503 million while net profit increased 6 92% YoY to RMB7 940 million [4][6] - Asset scale expanded 12 5% YoY to RMB1 137 755 million with loan growth of 11 6% and deposit growth of 9 73% in 2024 [4] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 12 6%-13 1% from 2024-2026 [6] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB1 97 in 2024 to RMB2 51 in 2026 representing a CAGR of 12 9% [6] Asset Quality - NPL ratio declined 1BP QoQ to 1 15% at end-2024 with provision coverage ratio at 314% [9] - NPL ratio is expected to gradually decline to 1 12% by 2026 [12] - Provision coverage ratio is projected to increase to 324% by 2026 [12] Business Development - County-level business contribution is becoming more prominent potentially enhancing asset-side interest rate resilience [9] - Corporate banking is expected to maintain its leading position in driving loan growth [9] - Retail ecosystem development and county-level financial strategy are creating synergies [9] Valuation - Current P B ratio is 0 52x for 2024 with projected P B ratios of 0 47x and 0 42x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [6] - P E ratio is expected to decline from 4 3x in 2024 to 3 4x in 2026 [6] Financial Projections - Net interest income is projected to grow from RMB21 481 million in 2024 to RMB25 764 million in 2026 [12] - Net fee and commission income is expected to increase from RMB1 379 million in 2024 to RMB1 744 million in 2026 [12] - Total assets are forecasted to reach RMB1 388 645 million by 2026 with a CAGR of 10 3% [12]