CSICPCL(SH:600482) GF SECURITIES·2025-01-21 02:59Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" to the company, with a current price of 23.00 CNY and a fair value of 28.76 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.17 billion to 1.4 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.10% to 79.61% [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to set a new record for quarterly performance, driven by sustained growth in the shipbuilding industry [5]. - The company is transitioning from a "manufacturing" model to a "manufacturing + service" model, enhancing its competitive position in the market [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 38.28 billion CNY in 2022 to 69.82 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 1.54 billion CNY in 2022 to 7.81 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 336 million CNY in 2022 to 3.20 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [2]. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - EPS is anticipated to grow from 0.16 CNY in 2022 to 1.42 CNY in 2026, indicating strong earnings growth [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 95.56 in 2022 to 16.18 by 2026, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings grow [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business and integrating operations to improve efficiency and profitability [5]. - The acquisition of a 16.5136% stake in a subsidiary is expected to strengthen the company's control and operational capabilities in the diesel engine segment [5].