东鹏饮料：淡季经营稳健，全年业绩延续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 15.734 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 3.223 billion, reflecting a growth of 58.02% [1][4]. - The company is focusing on national expansion and enhancing its product offerings, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [3]. Performance Summary - The company forecasts a revenue range of RMB 15.72 billion to RMB 16.10 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 40% to 43%. The net profit is expected to be between RMB 3.15 billion and RMB 3.45 billion, indicating a growth of 54% to 69% [1]. - For Q4, the expected revenue is between RMB 3.16 billion and RMB 3.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21% to 35% [1]. Operational Analysis - The company anticipates a net profit margin improvement in Q4, with projections of 20.7% for 2024 and 17.7% for Q4, both showing increases compared to the previous year [2]. - The company is leveraging cost advantages from raw material price reductions and scale effects, which are expected to enhance profitability [2]. Growth Strategy - The company is optimistic about its national expansion strategy and the potential for high growth in new product lines, supported by effective channel management and digital marketing [3]. - The report highlights the company's efforts in optimizing channel operations and increasing product visibility, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 3.22 billion, RMB 4.20 billion, and RMB 5.20 billion, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 58%, 30%, and 24% [4][7]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 40x for 2024, 31x for 2025, and 25x for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential [4].