CHINA PET FOODS(002891) 中原证券·2025-01-21 11:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 360 million to 400 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.40% to 71.55%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 320 million and 370 million yuan, with a growth rate of 42.26% to 64.49% [8]. - The pet food industry is experiencing positive export data and expanding market size, with a 21.4% year-on-year increase in pet feed production in the first half of 2024. The export volume of pet food in December 2024 reached 32,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [8]. - The company's product profitability has significantly improved, driven by the development of its own brands and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products. The domestic business has become profitable, and overseas operations are steadily growing [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,248 million yuan in 2022 to 5,807 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.89% [9]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 106 million yuan in 2022 to 581 million yuan in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 120.12% in 2023 and 58.79% in 2024 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.36 yuan in 2022 to 1.97 yuan in 2026, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [9]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's pet industry, benefiting from both domestic and international market growth. The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on optimizing product structure and expanding its global supply chain [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is projected to be 32.07 for 2024, decreasing to 20.45 by 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation range considering the company's growth potential [10].