立高食品：业绩持续改善，势能可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 38.35 CNY and a reasonable value of 45.52 CNY, indicating a potential upside of approximately 18.5% [4]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with significant momentum expected in the future. The 2024 revenue forecast is between 3.77 billion to 3.93 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7% to 12.3%, with a midpoint of 10% [10]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 to 285 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 262.9% to 290.3%, with a midpoint growth of 276.6% [10]. - Cost control and efficiency improvements have led to a significant release of performance elasticity, with the company expected to report a single-quarter revenue of 1.13 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [10]. - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased focus on baked goods in supermarkets and improvements in the frozen baking business [10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.85 billion, 4.22 billion, and 4.59 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.6 billion CNY [10]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 2.911 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.3%. In 2023, revenue increased to 3.499 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 20.2%. The forecast for 2024 is 3.850 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.0% [9]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 514 million CNY, with a significant increase from 257 million CNY in 2023 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 73 million CNY in 2023 to 275 million CNY in 2024, marking a growth rate of 276.2% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.43 CNY in 2023 to 1.62 CNY in 2024 [9].