Yanjing Brewery(000729) 长江证券·2025-01-21 11:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has released a 2024 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 to 1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.11% to 70.62%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 950 million to 1.07 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 89.91% to 113.9% [4][10]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -288 to -188 million yuan for Q4 2024, indicating a reduction in losses by 23 to 123 million yuan [4][10]. - The company has shown significant reform results, with net profit increasing from 352 million yuan in 2022 to an expected 1 to 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, marking a twofold increase [10]. - The company is focusing on the U8 product line, enhancing marketing efforts, and improving operational efficiency through team restructuring and digital supply chain management [10]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.37, 0.50, and 0.56 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 30X, 22X, and 20X [10]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 14.94 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 6.018 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 40% [14]. - The operating profit is projected to be 1.617 billion yuan for 2024, with a corresponding operating margin of 11% [14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.056 billion yuan in 2024, with an EPS of 0.37 yuan [14].