Ligao Foods (300973) 光大证券·2025-01-22 00:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.77 to 3.93 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.74% to 12.31%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 265 to 285 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 262.88% to 290.27% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to see a revenue of 1.053 to 1.213 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.86% to 32.32%, and a net profit of 62 to 82 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a notable acceleration in revenue growth, particularly in the cream business, with strong sales of the whipped cream product. The frozen baking segment has also shown significant improvement, with new products launched in major supermarket channels receiving positive market feedback [2]. Profitability - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve significantly in 2024, primarily due to a reduction in share-based payment expenses and enhanced operational efficiency through strict budget management and marketing cost control. The automation in the whipped cream production line has also contributed to higher production efficiency and scale benefits [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to increase its channel coverage and leverage new product launches in the frozen baking segment to drive growth. The profit margin is anticipated to continue improving due to efforts in domestic raw material substitution and enhanced production efficiency. The net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted to 279, 332, and 386 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.64, 1.96, and 2.28 yuan [4].