CATL(300750) 东吴证券·2025-01-22 01:25Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q4 2024 performance meets market expectations with revenue forecasted at 3560-3660 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8-11%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 490-530 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11-20% [7] - Q4 2024 shipments are expected to be 140-145GWh, with high demand in Q1 2025 setting the stage for strong annual growth [7] - The company's profitability remains stable, with Q4 2024 average price per wh at 0.7 yuan (tax included) and profit per wh maintained at 0.1 yuan+ [7] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is revised upwards to 508/661/802 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 23/18/15x [7] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue: 365648 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.80% [1] - 2025E revenue: 459584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.69% [1] - 2026E revenue: 536021 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.63% [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to the parent company: 50804 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.15% [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to the parent company: 66065 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.04% [1] - 2026E net profit attributable to the parent company: 80231 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.44% [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E ratio: 22.90x [1] - 2025E P/E ratio: 17.61x [1] - 2026E P/E ratio: 14.50x [1] - 2024E P/B ratio: 4.66x [8] - 2025E P/B ratio: 3.70x [8] - 2026E P/B ratio: 2.96x [8] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024E total assets: 725359 million yuan [8] - 2025E total assets: 874704 million yuan [8] - 2026E total assets: 1019497 million yuan [8] - 2024E operating cash flow: 69090 million yuan [8] - 2025E operating cash flow: 122082 million yuan [8] - 2026E operating cash flow: 135774 million yuan [8] Industry and Market Data - The company's stock price closed at 264.18 yuan [5] - The company's market capitalization is 1163307.77 million yuan [5] - The company's P/B ratio is 4.91x [5] - The company's total liabilities to assets ratio is 64.33% [6] Related Research - The company is planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange to build an overseas financing platform and continue its globalization efforts [7] - The company has announced continuous dividends, demonstrating strong financial strength, and is expanding its market share in Europe through joint ventures [7]