立高食品：Q4收入略超预期，春节备货积极

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue ranging from 10.53 to 12.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.83% to 32.28% [4] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.62 to 0.82 billion yuan in Q4 2024, turning from a loss to a profit [4] - The company's performance in the Spring Festival season exceeded expectations, with sales increasing month by month from October to December [5] - The company's new production line for cream products has been put into trial production and sales, with strong growth in the cream segment [5] - The company plans to actively adjust its frozen baking business in 2025, with cream production capacity expected to increase and maintain rapid growth [6] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 37.71, 43.03, and 47.49 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.78%, 14.09%, and 10.37% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.78, 3.32, and 3.82 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 281.04%, 19.33%, and 15.11% [7] - The EPS for the next three years is projected to be 1.64, 1.96, and 2.26 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 17 times [7] Business Segments - Sam's Club channel: The company expects a recovery in 2025 with the addition of new products [6] - Distribution bakeries: The frozen baking market is growing slowly, and the company plans to increase internal efficiency through reforms [6] - Catering and new retail: The company will further collaborate with major clients like Yum China, Pang Donglai, and Yonghui for product development [6] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to be 31.4%, 32.2%, 32.5%, and 32.6% for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] - The net profit margin is projected to be 2.0%, 7.3%, 7.6%, and 8.0% for the same periods [13] - The ROE is expected to be 3.0%, 10.9%, 12.4%, and 13.7% for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13]