SERES(SH:601127) Ping An Securities·2025-01-22 02:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Seres (601127 SH) [1] Core Views - Seres achieved a turnaround in 2024 mainly due to the success of its AITO brand, especially the AITO M9 model which became a phenomenon in the 500k RMB price range [8] - AITO series sales reached 389k units in 2024, a 275 8% YoY increase, with M9 accounting for 156k units and becoming the sales champion in the 500k+ RMB category [8] - Q4 2024 performance showed a sequential decline, with non-GAAP net profit margin dropping 1 4 percentage points to 4 2%, mainly due to decreased sales of M5 and M7 models [8] - The AITO M8, a new model targeting the 400k RMB SUV market, is expected to replicate M9's success and drive further profit growth in 2025 [8] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue is forecasted to be 144 2-146 7 billion RMB, a 302 3%-309 3% YoY increase [3] - 2024 net profit is expected to be 5 5-6 billion RMB, with Q4 net profit of 1 5-2 billion RMB [3] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are adjusted to 144 8/178 3/216 6 billion RMB, with net profit forecasts of 5 7/10/12 5 billion RMB [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve significantly from 10 4% in 2023 to 25 5% in 2024 [5] Product Analysis - AITO M9 maintained stable sales in Q4 2024, with cumulative orders exceeding 200k units within 12 months of launch [8] - AITO M8 is positioned as a 400k RMB SUV, targeting a slightly lower market segment than M9, with expected monthly sales of 15k units [8] - M8 is projected to generate over 40 billion RMB in revenue in 2025 [8] Market Position - Seres has become the most successful brand under HarmonyOS Smart Selection, with strong growth potential [9] - The company's partnership with Huawei has proven successful, particularly in the high-end SUV market [8]