Three Squirrels(300783) 国盛证券·2025-01-22 03:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.4% to 51.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.0% to 91.1% [1][3]. - The company has successfully returned to the 10 billion yuan revenue mark, driven by its "high-end cost-performance" strategy and strong offline distribution momentum [1][2]. - The offline distribution sales exceeded 1.8 billion yuan as of January 10, 2025, marking a nearly 50% year-on-year growth, with expectations for further increases as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue growth of 45.2%, reaching approximately 10.3 billion yuan, with net profit expected to grow by 89.3% to around 416 million yuan [3][5]. - The projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 10.3 billion yuan in 2024, 13.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.2 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 416 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 715 million yuan respectively [3][5]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its offline distribution channels while leveraging its strong online operational capabilities to drive growth [2][3]. - The strategy emphasizes "high-end cost-performance" to penetrate the offline market effectively, with expectations for significant growth in the post-holiday season [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 34.4 for 2024, decreasing to 20.0 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][10]. - The projected EPS for 2024 is 1.04 yuan per share, increasing to 1.78 yuan by 2026 [5][10].