CATL(300750) 民生证券·2025-01-22 05:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for CATL (300750 SZ) [4][6] Core Views - CATL's 2024 performance is in line with expectations, with stable profitability and multi-business expansion demonstrating long-term potential [1] - The company's market share continues to grow, with domestic and global market share reaching 45 08% and 36 8% respectively in 2024 [2] - CATL's multi-pronged expansion strategy, including H-share listing and joint ventures, enhances its global presence and long-term growth prospects [3] - Traditional businesses are thriving, with new product launches and significant energy storage system contracts [4] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue is expected to be 356-366 billion yuan, down 11 2%-8 71% YoY, while net profit attributable to parent company is projected to grow 11 06%-20 12% to 49-53 billion yuan [1] - Q4 2024 net profit attributable to parent company is estimated at 13-17 billion yuan [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 363 7, 451 2, and 516 7 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -9 3%, 24 1%, and 14 5% respectively [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 51 6, 67 3, and 77 0 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 17 0%, 30 3%, and 14 4% respectively [4] Market Position - CATL's 2024 domestic power battery installation market share reached 45 08%, up 1 89 percentage points YoY [2] - Global EV power battery installed capacity from January to November 2024 was 785 6GWh, with CATL's share at 36 8%, up 0 6 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's global market share growth rate of 28 6% outpaced the industry's 26 4% growth rate [2] Business Expansion - CATL plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy [3] - A joint venture with Stellantis is expected to establish a battery factory with a total investment of 4 038 billion euros and an annual capacity of 50GWh [3] - The company is expected to announce new joint venture projects with OEMs in Europe [3] - CATL has launched new systems and brands in commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and energy storage sectors [4] - The company secured a 19GWh energy storage system contract in the UAE [4] - CATL plans to build 1,000 battery swap stations by 2025, with a long-term goal of 30,000 stations [4] Financial Metrics - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 11 73, 15 29, and 17 49 yuan respectively [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are 23, 17, and 15 times respectively [4] - 2024-2026 PB ratios are 5 1, 4 3, and 3 7 times respectively [4] - 2024-2026 dividend yields are projected at 2 22%, 2 89%, and 3 31% respectively [11] Operational Highlights - CATL's 2024 full-year shipment volume is expected to reach 480GWh, up 23% YoY [2] - The company's capacity utilization rate remained high in Q4 2024 [2] - CATL's gross margin is expected to improve from 22 91% in 2023 to 28 48% in 2024 [11] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 22 32% in 2023 to 25 11% in 2025 [11]