Longi(601012) 华创证券·2025-01-22 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Longi Green Energy, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company forecasts a significant loss for 2024, with an expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -8.8 billion to -8.2 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the acceleration of BC technology industrialization and the potential for new products to improve profitability, particularly with the launch of the Hi-MO X10 distributed module product [8][9]. - The report suggests that the industry may see a price turning point post-Spring Festival, which could lead to a recovery in profitability [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Total revenue is expected to decline by 41.2% in 2024 to 76.204 billion yuan, with a projected recovery in subsequent years [4]. - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit is projected to be -8.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 4.67 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.052 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to be -1.12 yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 0.62 yuan in 2025 and 0.80 yuan in 2026 [4]. - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be -13 in 2024, 24 in 2025, and 19 in 2026 [4]. Market Position - Longi Green Energy is positioned as a dual leader in silicon wafers and modules, with a differentiated strategy in BC technology development [8][9]. - The company is actively working on expanding its production capacity for HPBC2.0 battery technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [8][9].