TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 华创证券·2025-01-22 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 25.91 CNY, while the current price is 20.19 CNY [7][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as an industry leader, but its performance is under pressure due to low prices. The forecast for 2024 indicates a significant shift from profit to loss, with an expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -7.5 billion to -7.0 billion CNY [3][11]. - The company anticipates a net profit of -3.53 billion to -3.03 billion CNY for Q4 2024, reflecting a continued decline [3]. - Despite the expected losses, the operating cash flow is projected to remain positive, indicating some resilience in cash generation [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 139.1 billion CNY, with a forecasted decline to 93.5 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 32.8% [6]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.36 billion CNY, expected to turn into a loss of 7.25 billion CNY in 2024, marking a staggering year-on-year decline of 153.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to drop from 3.02 CNY in 2023 to -1.61 CNY in 2024 [6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -13 in 2024, indicating a challenging earnings environment [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 164.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 179.9 billion CNY in 2024 [12]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the silicon material and battery sectors, with significant growth in its component business anticipated [11]. - The report highlights that the company’s production capacity is expected to exceed 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, maintaining its industry-leading status [11]. - The company is also expected to see a substantial increase in component shipments, projected to reach 45-47 GW in 2024, a year-on-year growth of approximately 50% [11].