CYPC(600900) 华源证券·2025-01-22 09:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall water inflow improved in 2024, but there was a significant decline in the fourth quarter. The company's total power generation for 2024 was approximately 295.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, while the fourth quarter saw a decrease of 17.60% compared to the previous year [7] - Financial expenses and investment income are expected to continue contributing to growth. The company anticipates a reduction in financial expenses by 600-800 million yuan annually due to debt repayment schedules, with interest expenses in the first half of 2024 at 5.704 billion yuan, down 676 million yuan year-on-year [7] - The report suggests that the company's stock price performance is primarily influenced by the credit spread, with expectations for further compression of equity spreads in a stable credit environment [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 29.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 713.49 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 700.05 billion yuan [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023 at 78.11 billion yuan, 2024 at 85.08 billion yuan, 2025 at 86.98 billion yuan, and 2026 at 87.62 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 50.04%, 8.92%, 2.23%, and 0.74% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 32.82 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.49% [6] - The report indicates that the company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 26.19 in 2023 to 19.67 in 2026 [6] Financial Statements Overview - The total assets of the company are projected to be 571.94 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 558.10 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The total liabilities are expected to decline from 359.64 billion yuan in 2023 to 322.81 billion yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 201.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 222.59 billion yuan in 2026 [8]