Hisense V.T.(SH:600060) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-01-22 11:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual Technology is maintained at "Buy" [2][6][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue between 52 billion to 60 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders between 2 billion to 2.3 billion yuan for the year 2024, with a significant recovery in profitability driven by the domestic trade-in policy and improved cost pressures [6][7] - The report anticipates a notable recovery in profitability for Q4 2024, with revenue projected between 113 billion to 193 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow by 47% to 112% year-on-year [6][7] - The report highlights the positive impact of the trade-in policy on domestic sales, particularly in the mid-to-high-end product segments, and expects continued growth in overseas markets due to inventory destocking and improved panel costs [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 45.738 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, while 2023 saw a recovery with a 17.2% increase to 53.616 billion yuan. The forecast for 2024 is a modest growth of 5.5% to 56.559 billion yuan [9][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 1.679 billion yuan, increasing to 2.096 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight expected increase to 2.117 billion yuan in 2024 [9][11] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.62 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.5 times [9][11] Market Dynamics - The domestic market is experiencing a dual increase in volume and price due to the trade-in policy, with online retail sales of televisions in Q4 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 20% in volume and 12% in average price [7] - The report notes significant growth in large-size and MiniLED televisions, with retail volume for 70-79 inch, 80-89 inch, and 90 inch televisions increasing by 23%, 85%, and 166% respectively [7] - The export market continues to show growth, with a year-on-year increase in digital television exports of 25% in Q4 2024, supported by inventory destocking and improved panel pricing [8] Cost and Profitability - The report indicates a slight decline in panel prices in Q4 2024, with expectations of a small increase in large-size panel prices due to strong mid-to-high-end demand and pre-holiday stocking [8] - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly due to the combination of domestic policy support and favorable cost conditions, leading to an optimistic outlook for profit recovery [6][8]