YTCO(600066) 信达证券·2025-01-22 11:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) is "Buy" with a target price of 35.85 [1]. Core Views - Yutong Bus is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance for 2024, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 38.2 billion to 42.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135% [2][4]. - The company anticipates a strong sales performance in both domestic and international markets, with total bus sales expected to reach 46,918 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [4]. - The implementation of a "trade-in" policy is expected to boost domestic sales, particularly for new energy buses, as the government increases subsidies for replacing older vehicles [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yutong Bus forecasts a net profit of approximately 40.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.6%, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 16.1 billion yuan, up 110.3% [4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 270 billion yuan in 2023 to 352 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.2% [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 25.4% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 23.9% [5]. Sales and Market Share - Yutong Bus's export sales are projected to reach 14,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, contributing to a total market share of 22.7% in the Chinese bus export market [4]. - The company is also expected to capture a 24.1% market share in the new energy bus segment, with sales of 13,795 units, a year-on-year increase of 93.3% [4]. Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for Yutong Bus for the years 2024 to 2026 are 40 billion, 45 billion, and 52 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [4].