SDIC Power(600886) 长江证券·2025-01-22 11:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company's hydropower performance is under pressure due to a decrease in water inflow and average on-grid electricity prices, leading to a projected decline in hydropower output by 3.70% year-on-year in Q4 2024. The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower has decreased by 5.94% year-on-year [2][8]. - In the thermal power sector, the company expects a year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation by 10.72% in Q4 2024. However, a slight increase in average on-grid electricity prices by 0.64% year-on-year, combined with a rapid decline in coal prices, may alleviate some pressure on thermal power performance [2][8]. - Overall, both clean energy and thermal power businesses are expected to perform weakly, leading to potential pressure on the company's Q4 performance. Nevertheless, considering the growth in the first three quarters, the company is still expected to maintain year-on-year improvement for the entire year [2][8]. Summary by Sections Hydropower Performance - In Q4 2024, the company completed hydropower generation of 237.40 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.70% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower was 0.285 yuan/kWh, down 5.94% year-on-year [5][8]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the Yalong River hydropower was 0.296 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.43% year-on-year [8]. Thermal Power Performance - The company’s thermal power generation in Q4 2024 was 121.11 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.72% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price for thermal power was 0.474 yuan/kWh, an increase of 0.64% year-on-year [5][8]. - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was 822.60 yuan/ton, down approximately 135.10 yuan/ton year-on-year, which may help ease the pressure on thermal power performance [8]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.95 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.56, 16.25, and 14.71 [5][8].