Zijin Mining(601899) 光大证券·2025-01-22 11:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 16.25 CNY per share [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 32 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of about 51.5% [1]. - The production plan for 2025 includes a year-on-year increase of 7.5% in copper and 16.4% in gold output, along with the addition of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate production [3]. - The company plans to acquire a 24.82% stake in Zangge Mining for 13.7 billion CNY, which will enhance its copper, lithium, and potassium resource reserves [4]. - The outlook for copper and gold prices is positive, with expectations of price increases due to stable demand and macroeconomic factors [4]. Summary by Sections Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit is estimated at 7.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 54% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.6% [2]. - The copper production for 2024 is projected at 1.07 million tons, while gold production is expected to reach 73 tons [2]. Production Planning - The company plans to produce 1.15 million tons of copper and 85 tons of gold in 2025, with slight adjustments from previous targets [3]. Acquisition - The acquisition of Zangge Mining is expected to bolster the company's resource base and leverage synergies in lithium extraction technology [4]. Industry Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the upward trend in copper and gold prices, driven by stable demand and favorable economic conditions [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 32 billion CNY, 40 billion CNY, and 47.8 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 51.5%, 25.3%, and 19.4% [4].