华润电力：火电稳健绿电高增，全年业绩展望优异

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's thermal power sales volume for 2024 is projected to reach 2,076.37 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. The thermal power sales volume specifically for the second half of 2024 is expected to be 832.63 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.46% [2][5]. - The average price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port for the second half of 2024 is forecasted to be 835.74 CNY/ton, a decrease of 75.47 CNY/ton compared to the previous year. This cost reduction, combined with stable electricity sales growth, is anticipated to improve the company's thermal power profitability [2][8]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in its renewable energy segment, with wind power sales volume projected to increase by 14.53% and solar power sales volume by 105.80% in the second half of 2024. This growth is driven by the expansion of installed capacity [2][8]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power Performance - The company achieved a thermal power sales volume of 1,554.10 billion kWh in 2024, marking a 4.0% increase year-on-year. The second half of 2024 is expected to see a thermal power sales volume of 832.63 billion kWh, reflecting a 4.46% year-on-year growth. The steady decline in coal prices is expected to alleviate cost pressures and enhance profitability [5][8]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company’s wind power sales volume reached 437.71 billion kWh in 2024, up 10.5% year-on-year, while solar power sales volume surged by 141.5% to 69.16 billion kWh. The second half of 2024 is projected to see wind power sales of 213.83 billion kWh (up 14.53%) and solar power sales of 37.67 billion kWh (up 105.80%) [5][8]. Future Outlook and Investment Value - The company plans to add 40 million kW of renewable energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an estimated investment of approximately 466 billion HKD in 2024 for new wind and solar projects. The consistent dividend policy, with a 2023 dividend of 0.915 HKD per share and a payout ratio of 40%, underscores the company's investment value [2][8].