CNOOC(600938) 民生证券·2025-01-23 02:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net production of approximately 720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, reaching the upper limit of its initial target, and is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2025 to 2027 [1][2]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to no less than 45% for the years 2025 to 2027, which is an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the previous commitment of 40% [3][4]. - The capital expenditure budget for 2025 is projected to be stable at 125 billion to 135 billion yuan, with a focus on exploration, development, and production [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Growth - The company anticipates a production target of 760-780 million barrels in 2025, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][2]. - New projects in both domestic and international markets are expected to drive production growth, including the development of several oil fields and gas projects [2]. Financial Projections - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is approximately 430.87 billion yuan, with a slight decline expected in 2025 to 428.98 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 438.50 billion yuan in 2026 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 146.99 billion yuan in 2024, slightly decreasing to 145.77 billion yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 148.81 billion yuan in 2026 [5][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to remain at 9 times for the years 2025 and 2026, suggesting a stable valuation [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.07 yuan, with a slight increase to 3.13 yuan in 2026 [5][11].