ENN-NG(SH:600803) Soochow Securities·2025-01-23 04:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to show stable growth due to the stock incentive plan, with core profit growth not less than 7% from 2024 to 2027, highlighting its dividend attributes [1][4] - Natural gas demand is steadily increasing, supported by an integrated layout that aids the company's robust development, with a projected domestic natural gas demand growth of 9% from 2023 to 2030 [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2022 was 154.169 billion yuan, with a forecast of 143.842 billion yuan for 2023, and expected growth to 161.441 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.844 billion yuan in 2022, projected to decrease to 5.234 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 6.092 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.89 yuan for 2022, decreasing to 1.69 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 1.97 yuan by 2026 [1] Business Strategy - The company has established an integrated layout with upstream gas sources, midstream storage and transportation, and downstream customers, enhancing its operational efficiency [3] - The company has signed long-term contracts exceeding 10 million tons per year, optimizing its resource pool [3] - The retail gas gross margin is expected to improve, with a retail gas price difference of 0.54 yuan per cubic meter in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase [3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute dividends of no less than 1.03 yuan and 1.14 yuan per share for 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.0% and 5.5% [4]