Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to face challenges in 2024, with expected revenue of 4.185 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 12%. This is attributed to a downturn in the film market and underperformance of certain films. The net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to drop to 178 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 80.5% [1][7]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to see operational improvements, with revenue projected to rebound to 5.266 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 25.8% [1][7]. Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 4.185 billion yuan, down from 4.758 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth of 5.266 billion yuan in 2025 [3][8]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 178 million yuan, significantly lower than 910 million yuan in 2023, with a recovery to 733 million yuan in 2025 [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.16 yuan in 2024, compared to 0.79 yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 0.64 yuan in 2025 [3][8]. Revenue Breakdown - Online ticketing revenue is expected to decline to 1.944 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 44%. This includes a projected 1.594 billion yuan from movie ticketing, down 20% due to a weaker film market [7]. - Live performance ticketing revenue is anticipated to grow to 350 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 29%, benefiting from a strong demand in the live performance sector [7]. - Revenue from entertainment content services is projected to be 2 billion yuan in 2024, down 13% year-over-year, primarily due to underperformance of key films [7]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 40%, a decrease of 10 percentage points from the previous year, influenced by the underperformance of certain films [7]. - The report anticipates an increase in the sales and management expense ratio to 30.5% in 2024, reflecting the impact of declining revenues while some costs remain fixed [7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.7 HKD, based on a relative valuation method using a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 times for 2025 [4][7].
猫眼娱乐：2024年业绩前瞻：受单片影响预计24年承压，看好25年经营改善