Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HK28.60,downfromHK31.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HK24.00[2][4][10].CoreViews−Thereporthighlightsthatthetrendofpremiumizationinthebeersegmentcontinues,albeitataslowerpace,whilethebaijiubusinessfaceschallengesduetoindustryoversupply[8][9].−ItanticipatesthatChinaResourcesBeermayexperienceitsfirstyear−on−yearrevenuedeclinesince2020in2024,primarilyduetoweakdemandforalcoholicbeveragesamidmacroeconomicpressures[8][9].−Thereportprojectsaslightrecoveryinbeersalesin2025,withanexpectedpriceincreaseof2.228.60 from HK$31.30, reflecting adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 due to slower-than-expected growth in the baijiu segment [4][10][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 1%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4][14]. Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 38,566 million, a decrease of 1.7% from previous estimates, with a slight increase to RMB 39,742 million in 2025 [11][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 7% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and controlled sales and marketing expenses [8][11]. Market Comparison - The report compares China Resources Beer’s valuation metrics with its peers, noting that its target EV/EBITDA multiple remains at 8 times for 2025, which is at the lower end of the range compared to global beer and domestic baijiu companies [16][17].
CHINA RES BEER(00291) 华兴证券·2025-01-23 14:46