巴比食品：2024年业绩快报点评：单店营收改善，净利率提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.671 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.6% [8] - The revenue is showing a quarterly recovery trend, with single-store revenue improving sequentially [8] - The net profit margin is expected to increase, with a projected net profit margin of 12.6% for 2024, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, which is anticipated to further enhance single-store revenue [8] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 16.71 billion yuan, 18.11 billion yuan, and 19.46 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 1.671 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [8] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 277 million yuan, which is a 29.6% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The company’s quarterly revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 3.54 billion yuan, 4.10 billion yuan, 4.47 billion yuan, and 4.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a trend of sequential improvement [8] Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.11 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.04 [1] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 12.6% in 2024, with a further increase to 13.8% in Q4 2024 [8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable, with potential for a decrease in expense ratios as the scale expands [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to reach an upward turning point in 2025, with plans to open 1,000 new stores [8] - The revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 2.5%, 8.4%, and 7.5% respectively [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 254 million yuan, with a slight decrease expected in 2026 [8]