Yahua Group(002497) 东吴证券·2025-01-23 23:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 280-330 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 596-721%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be 130-180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 116-123% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 140-237% [7] - The lithium salt business is expected to turn profitable in Q4, with a projected sales volume of 45,000-50,000 tons for 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 60%. The company anticipates a sales volume of 70,000-80,000 tons in 2025, also showing a 60% increase [7] - The company plans to enhance its resource self-sufficiency rate to nearly 30% by 2025, with the second phase of its Kamatiwi lithium mine project expected to contribute significantly [7] - The civil explosives business is projected to contribute over 500 million yuan in profit for 2024, with an expected increase of 20-30% in 2025 [7] - An employee stock ownership plan has been announced, with ambitious profit and sales growth targets set for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Due to a general downward trend in lithium prices, the profit forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 305 million yuan, 935 million yuan, and 1.261 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 6.863 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.31% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 304.94 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 658.28% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.26 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.08 [1][8] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 15.271 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 21.51% [8]