NARI-TECH(600406) 高盛·2025-01-24 01:42Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nari Technology (国电南瑞) with a "Buy" rating and sets a 12-month target price of RMB 29.0, implying a 26% upside potential from the current price [1][84][103]. Core Insights - Nari Technology is positioned to benefit significantly from the structural demand in China's smart grid sector, with expectations of strong revenue and net profit growth of 10% and 11% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, respectively [1][101]. - The report highlights that China's power grid investment is projected to reach a record high of RMB 690 billion in 2025, driven by fiscal support and a focus on integrating renewable energy sources [1][34][35]. - Nari Technology maintains a dominant market share in various segments, including UHV converter valves and grid digitalization, with market shares ranging from 34% to 70% [2][54][101]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Nari Technology is a key player in the power equipment sector, providing a comprehensive range of products that support the modernization of China's power grid [50][54]. - The company is expected to maintain its leadership in software and hardware technologies, with a significant portion of its revenue (40%) derived from software solutions [2][49][54]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the structural growth in China's power grid investments, particularly in UHV and smart grid technologies, which are essential for integrating renewable energy sources [14][22][48]. - It is anticipated that 60% of incremental grid investments from 2024 to 2030 will be driven by the intake of renewable energy [14][16]. Financial Performance - Nari Technology's financial outlook is robust, with projected gross profit margins stabilizing at 28% and operating margins improving to 16% by 2030 [76][77]. - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 18.3% by 2030, reflecting strong financial performance compared to peers [77][91]. Valuation - The target price of RMB 29.0 is based on a 25x P/E multiple for 2025, which is considered attractive given the company's growth prospects and market position [84][85]. - Nari Technology is currently trading at a lower valuation compared to its historical averages and domestic peers, suggesting potential for valuation expansion [85][97].