首创环保：转让新加坡子公司致归母净利高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 3.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.93%, primarily due to the transfer of its Singapore subsidiary, which generated an investment income of about 1.78 billion yuan [1][2] - The company's main business includes urban water services, solid waste treatment, water environment comprehensive management, and air comprehensive management, with stable public utility asset operations [1] - The company is likely to benefit from cash flow and asset structure improvements due to government debt reduction policies [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5 billion yuan for 2024, a significant increase from the previous year [1] - The expected non-deductible net profit for 2024 is around 1.55 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.93% [6] Cash Flow and Investment - As of September 30, 2024, the company's accounts receivable stood at 14.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.31% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.957 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.44% [3] - The company expects free cash flow to improve in 2025-2026 as ongoing projects commence operations and capital expenditures decline [3] Pricing and Revenue Stability - The water supply and sewage treatment pricing mechanism is based on "permitted costs + permitted returns," which provides stable revenue characteristics [4] - The company plans to adjust water prices for three water supply projects and eight sewage projects in the first half of 2024, affecting a total supply capacity of 1.087 million tons per day and a treatment capacity of 812,000 tons per day, respectively [4] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 3.64 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 14.0 times for 2025 [5][7] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.48, 0.26, and 0.28 yuan, respectively [5][6]