ZJJH(600160) 华泰证券·2025-01-24 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted range of RMB 1.87 billion to RMB 2.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 98% to 123% [1] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the ongoing uptrend in refrigerant prices and demand, supported by the quota system [1][4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised to RMB 3.5 billion and RMB 4.5 billion, respectively, reflecting an increase of 25% and 18% from previous estimates [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, refrigerant sales are expected to increase by 23% year-on-year to 353,000 tons, driven by the consolidation of Feiyuan Chemical and rising product prices under the quota system [2] - The average price of refrigerants is projected to rise by 33% year-on-year to RMB 26,800 per ton, contributing to a revenue increase of 63% year-on-year to RMB 9.45 billion [2] Segment Analysis - The basic chemical products segment is expected to see a 12% increase in sales to 1.785 million tons, although revenue is projected to decline by 4% to RMB 2.8 billion due to weak market conditions for caustic soda and synthetic ammonia [3] - The fluoropolymer segment is anticipated to grow, with sales expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 46,000 tons, despite price pressures leading to a 15% decline in average prices [2][3] Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive, along with tight supply conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is also expected to benefit from the gradual release of new projects, enhancing its competitive edge through integrated operations and high-value products [4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20.66 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.52 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.73% [7] - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from RMB 943.51 million in 2023 to RMB 1.98 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 110.13% [7]