YTCO(600066) 长江证券·2025-01-24 01:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion to 4.27 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 3.18 billion and 3.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 125% to 155% [3][4]. - The domestic market shows continuous growth in passenger buses, while the overseas market benefits from globalization and high-end strategies, enhancing profitability through exports. The reduction in battery costs, combined with economies of scale, supports the company's ongoing performance improvement [3][4]. - The company has slowed down capital expenditures, ensuring sufficient cash flow to support high dividends [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.39 billion to 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.1% to 139.8%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 83.1% to 142.5%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.11 billion and 1.54 billion yuan, with similar year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [8]. - The total sales volume for Q4 2024 reached 15,572 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.3%, with export sales contributing significantly [8]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its direct sales and service model, aiming to improve service quality and efficiency. It plans to operate 56 direct service centers and 25 direct parts warehouses in 2024 [8]. - The company has a market share of 34.9% in the large and medium bus segment and aims to expand its global competitiveness in the electric bus sector [8]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of 4.07 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.53 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.4X, 13.0X, and 11.3X [8].