XGD(300130) 光大证券·2025-01-24 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term profit impacts due to tax-related issues, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook for performance recovery in the industry [1]. - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 200 to 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 73.51% to 60.27% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its cross-border payment and overseas acquiring business, with a focus on enhancing payment hardware exports to high-end markets [2]. - The introduction of AI-driven digital employee products and investments in smart manufacturing and AI headquarters reflect the company's commitment to innovation and long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 3.394 billion yuan and 3.963 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 28% and 30% from previous estimates [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted to 287 million yuan and 838 million yuan, indicating a reduction of 70% and 33% from earlier predictions [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.544 billion yuan by 2026, with a corresponding net profit of 1.002 billion yuan [4]. Business Segments - Domestic acquiring business is expected to maintain stable transaction volumes, with a total processing volume of approximately 14.7 trillion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The payment hardware segment is focusing on international markets, particularly in Europe and Japan, where revenue has shown year-on-year growth [2]. - The launch of the PayKKa brand for cross-border payments has expanded the company's global payment capabilities, supporting over 10 major currencies and establishing local accounts in multiple regions [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The company's gross margin is projected to improve, with estimates of 40.6% for 2024 and 41.2% for 2025 [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 40x for 2024, decreasing to 14x in 2025 and further to 12x in 2026, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [4][12]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the company's return on equity (ROE), projected at 16.79% for 2025 and 17.35% for 2026 [12].