Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 32 to 35 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19% to 30%. However, it anticipates a net loss of 1.9 to 2.5 billion yuan, primarily due to goodwill impairment and marketing expenses for the new product line [10][28]. - The "Nanjiren Light Luxury" series is expected to significantly enhance brand value and profitability, with a projected turnaround in profitability by 2025 [10][28]. - The company has undergone a strategic transformation, focusing on quality control and supply chain management, which is anticipated to improve its market position and consumer perception [10][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Brand Strategy and Market Position - The company has shifted its main business model from brand licensing to a self-sourcing and franchise model, enhancing control over product quality and supplier qualifications [10][12]. - The "Nanjiren Light Luxury" series has seen a doubling of sales on Douyin in October 2024, with daily GMV exceeding 20 million yuan by December 2024 [10][52]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported total revenue of 3.31 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected increase to 4.91 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.69% [1]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 299.32 million yuan, following a loss of 211.90 million yuan in 2024 [1][10]. 3. Brand Breakdown - The "Bai Jia Hao" brand, acquired in 2022, has shown robust growth, achieving a GMV of 25 billion yuan in 2023 and projected to reach 47 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 88% increase [10][64]. - The company has successfully transitioned "Bai Jia Hao" to an online supply chain franchise model, focusing on Douyin as the primary sales channel [10][64]. 4. Supply Chain and Product Development - The company has implemented a centralized management approach for sourcing, design, and logistics, aiming to produce high-quality, cost-effective products [10][12]. - The design and material quality of the "Nanjiren Light Luxury" series have significantly improved, with a consumer satisfaction rate exceeding 95% [10][12]. 5. Marketing and Brand Image - The company has increased its marketing investments, including high-profile endorsements and advertising campaigns, which have temporarily impacted short-term profits but are expected to drive long-term growth [10][15].
南极电商:国民品牌,反转焕新