XGD(300130) 光大证券·2025-01-24 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term profit impacts due to tax-related issues, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook for performance recovery in the industry [1]. - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 200 to 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 73.51% to 60.27% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its cross-border payment and overseas acquiring business, with a focus on enhancing payment hardware exports to high-end markets [2]. - The introduction of AI "digital employees" and investments in AI and smart manufacturing are seen as key growth drivers for the company [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue decline for 2024 to approximately 3.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.71% year-on-year, with a projected recovery to 3.96 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be between 287 million and 838 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 61.95% year-on-year, with a recovery anticipated in 2025 [5][4]. Business Segments - Domestic acquiring business is expected to process approximately 14.7 trillion yuan in transaction volume for 2024, showing a slight decline but with improved gross margins [2]. - The company has successfully obtained a Hong Kong MSO license, enhancing its global payment capabilities and expanding its cross-border payment services [2]. Investment and Growth Strategy - The company plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in establishing an AI and smart manufacturing headquarters, indicating confidence in future growth and a strategic focus on technology [3]. - The report highlights the potential for revenue growth in both domestic and international acquiring businesses, with expectations for increased fee rates and improved gross margins [4].