Ligao Foods (300973) 国信证券·2025-01-24 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][12][14] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.77 to 3.93 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.74% to 12.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 265 to 285 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 262.88% to 290.27% [1][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 1.053 to 1.213 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% to 32.3%, and a net profit of 61.89 to 81.89 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [1][6] - The company has benefited from stable growth in cream products, supported by the new factory's production ramp-up and strong performance in the supermarket channel for new products [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit margin of 7.0% to 7.1% for 2024, with the fourth quarter net profit margin expected to be 5.9% to 6.4%, showing a clear recovery in profitability [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.59 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.0, 21.6, and 16.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [12][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has revised its revenue forecast for 2024-2026 to 38.2 billion yuan, 42.6 billion yuan, and 46.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 11.6%, and 9.1% [3][12] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been adjusted to 2.7 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 4.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 269.1%, 15.6%, and 27.7% [3][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product SKU and enhancing its channel coverage, which has led to improved performance in the frozen baking food segment [2][6] - The reduction in share-based payment expenses and improved operational efficiency through budget management and cost control have contributed to the recovery in profitability [7]