ZJJH(600160) 民生证券·2025-01-24 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 25.37 CNY [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87-2.10 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%-123% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to see a net profit of 0.612-0.842 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 211%-327% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45%-99% [1] - The refrigerant segment has shown strong performance with both volume and price increases, achieving a production of 149,900 tons in Q4 2024, up 19.09% year-on-year [2] - The company benefits from the rising spot prices of HFCs, with a projected market share of 45.82% for R32 in 2025, solidifying its leading position in the refrigerant market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a total revenue of 24.446 billion CNY for 2024, an 18.4% increase from 2023 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.998 billion CNY in 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of 944 million CNY in 2023 [6] - The EBITDA is projected to grow from 1.968 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.373 billion CNY in 2024 [7] Segment Analysis - The refrigerant segment's revenue in Q4 2024 is expected to be 3.128 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.64% [2] - Other chemical products are facing competitive pressures, with prices for fluoropolymer materials and basic chemical products declining by 16.71% and 14.27% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to policies promoting the replacement of old units and robust export activity, with the total production and sales of household air conditioners in China exceeding 200 million units in 2024 [3] - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's profitability driven by the upward trend in HFCs spot prices [3]