Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 9.86 to 10.06 CNY per share, indicating a premium of 9% to 11% over the current stock price of 9.18 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading regional energy enterprise with significant advantages in coal-electricity integration, which enhances its cost competitiveness and capacity growth potential [1][16]. - The profitability model of coal power is being restructured, leading to improved earnings stability as the revenue sources diversify beyond traditional electricity sales to include auxiliary services and capacity pricing [1][3]. - The company has a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 2.971 billion CNY in 2024, 3.082 billion CNY in 2025, and 3.445 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 3.8%, and 11.8% respectively [3][4]. Company Overview - The company, Shaanxi Energy, primarily engages in thermal power generation and coal production, with a total installed capacity of 11.23 million kW and coal production capacity of 24 million tons per year as of 2024 [1][16]. - The integrated coal-electricity model accounts for 61.57% of the company's approved total installed capacity, ensuring a stable power supply through the West-to-East electricity transmission project [1][2]. Capacity and Production Growth - The company has significant growth in both coal and electricity production, with ongoing projects expected to add 6 million tons of coal production capacity and 602 MW of thermal power capacity by 2026-2027 [2][33]. - As of September 2024, the company holds approximately 5.184 billion tons of coal reserves, with future production capacity projected to reach 46 million tons per year [2][33]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.91% in revenue and 48.40% in net profit from 2019 to 2023, with a revenue of 16.835 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.497 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024 [38][39]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 37.92%, with a net margin of 22.82%, indicating strong profitability despite a slight decrease in margins due to increased costs [44].
陕西能源：煤电一体化发展成本优势较强，产能增长空间大