JONJEE(600872) 华鑫证券·2025-01-24 10:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to a year-on-year increase in profitability [5] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be between 679 million and 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 40%-60% year-on-year due to a high base effect from a previous provision reversal [5] - The non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 629 million and 734 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%-40% driven by lower raw material procurement costs [5] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 103 million to 442 million yuan, a significant decrease of 85%-97% year-on-year, while the non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow by 26%-198% [5] Summary by Sections Sales and Profitability - The company is accelerating its sales pace in Q4 2024, with an annual revenue growth of 12% due to the effects of channel adjustments and the timing of the Spring Festival [6] - The company plans to enhance product development and strengthen restaurant channel expansion while optimizing raw material costs [6] - The company aims to achieve its 2025 revenue target of 6.784 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of no less than 16.5% and a return on equity of no less than 15.5% [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1.07, 1.29, and 1.53 yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel reform effects and the progress of merger and acquisition projects [7] Financial Projections - The company’s projected main revenue for 2024 is 5.695 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.8% [11] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 840 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 50.5% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a projected net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, representing a growth of 20.3% [11]