MANGO(300413) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-01-24 13:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company has achieved record highs in membership business and a recovery in advertising revenue, driven by high-quality content [6][9]. - The impact of tax policy changes has led to significant fluctuations in profit, with a notable increase in net profit for 2023 due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [8]. - The company’s effective membership size reached 73.31 million by the end of 2024, an increase of approximately 6.78 million from the end of 2023, with membership revenue growing by 18% to over 5 billion yuan [8][9]. - Advertising revenue showed a recovery in the second half of 2024, with an estimated total of 3.58 billion yuan for the year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth [8][9]. - The company has a rich content reserve, with several popular shows and series set to be released in 2025, which is expected to support ongoing growth in membership and advertising [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts operating profit for 2024 to be between 1.666 billion yuan and 2.026 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38% [5]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.250 billion yuan and 1.610 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 54.72% to 64.85% year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.78 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.25 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.88, 23.32, and 21.64 [9]. Market Data - As of January 23, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 27.15 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.739 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s net asset return rate is 6.40%, and the asset-liability ratio stands at 30.69% [1].