Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) 国信证券·2025-01-24 15:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as the No. 1 domestic mid-to-high-end hotel brand, creating a new growth paradigm of "accommodation + retail" [2][19]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth in both hotel operations and retail segments, with a significant increase in revenue and adjusted earnings [4][40]. - The report highlights the potential for brand concentration and structural improvement in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel market, drawing parallels with the U.S. market [3][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2013, the company has rapidly established itself as a leader in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel sector by focusing on differentiated positioning and user experience [19][24]. - The company has expanded its hotel portfolio to 1,210 locations by 2023, with a revenue CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2023 [2][34]. Growth Analysis - The report anticipates a stable RevPAR for the hotel industry in 2025, with a slight decline expected for the company’s overall RevPAR in the coming years [3][38]. - The company is projected to achieve a hotel store CAGR of 25-30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by ongoing expansion efforts [3][34]. Retail Segment - The retail business is expected to generate significant revenue growth, with projections of 20 billion RMB+ in retail income by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 110-130% from 2020 to 2024 [4][39]. - Retail revenue accounted for 21% of total income in 2023, with expectations to rise to approximately 29% in 2024 [4][39]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is forecasted to reach 69.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [5][8]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow to 12.9 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a 42.5% increase [5][8]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable market value range for the company between 316.6 billion RMB and 339.2 billion RMB, indicating a potential upside of 22-31% from the current price [5][6].