Asia-Potash(000893) 国金证券·2025-01-25 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a 28.15% stake in Nong Potash Resources, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary upon completion of the acquisition. This move is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and drive performance improvements [1][2]. - The company has a target of achieving a total production capacity of 5 million tons of potash fertilizer, with current production levels showing significant potential for exceeding initial capacity targets [2]. - The domestic inventory of potash fertilizer is expected to rise, with price increases anticipated due to reduced supply from overseas and strong downstream demand [3]. Summary by Sections Event Summary - On January 24, 2025, the company announced plans to acquire a 28.15% stake in Nong Potash Resources through a public bidding process, which will lead to full ownership of the subsidiary [1]. Operational Analysis - The acquisition aims to recover minority stakes and enhance equity production capacity, potentially increasing the company's total production capacity to 3 million tons. The company has already achieved a potash fertilizer output of 1.3227 million tons in the first three quarters [2]. - The acquisition price for the 28.15% stake is set at 1.782 billion RMB, with a projected valuation of 6.33 billion RMB for the subsidiary [2]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 3.762 billion RMB, 6.200 billion RMB, and 7.922 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 780 million RMB, 1.213 billion RMB, and 1.462 billion RMB for the same years. The EPS is projected to be 0.84, 1.31, and 1.58 RMB per share [4][7].