万华化学月报跟踪

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable growth in its polyurethane business, with MDI capacity projected to increase from 3.5 million tons to 4.9 million tons over the next 3-4 years, raising its market share from 32.62% to 38.72% [1] - The petrochemical segment's profitability is expected to improve with the commissioning of the ethylene phase II project in 2025, increasing C2 capacity to 2.2 million tons [1] - The new materials segment continues to launch new products, with ongoing investments in battery materials and other products [1] Company Financials - The company's projected revenue for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024: 189.48 billion RMB, 2025: 216.82 billion RMB, 2026: 229.35 billion RMB, with growth rates of 8.05%, 14.43%, and 5.78% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 15.38 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 19.49 billion RMB by 2026 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.90 RMB, 5.75 RMB, and 6.21 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Price Tracking - The price of pure MDI is projected to be 18,611 RMB per ton in January 2025, a decrease of 145 RMB from December 2024, reflecting a -0.77% change [1] - The TDI price is expected to be 13,458 RMB per ton in January 2025, an increase of 494 RMB from December 2024, showing a 3.81% change [2] Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a polyurethane production volume of 1.38 million tons, a decrease of 6.12% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 15.97% year-on-year [18] - The sales volume for the same period was 1.41 million tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 13.71% [18]