ZJJH(600160) 华安证券·2025-01-25 23:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refrigerant segment has seen both volume and price increases, leading to a significant year-on-year growth in overall performance for the company [5] - The company expects a substantial rise in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.87 to 2.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98% to 123% [5] - The average selling price of refrigerants is projected to increase by 32.69% to 26,800 yuan per ton, with external sales volume expected to rise by 22.61% to 353,000 tons in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.87 to 2.10 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter projected at 611 to 842 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 211% to 327% [5] - The company’s main products, particularly the second and third generation refrigerants, are experiencing improved pricing and sales due to a favorable supply-demand balance [5][6] Market Outlook - The refrigerant prices are expected to continue their upward trend into 2025, supported by constrained supply and increasing downstream demand from air conditioning production [6] - The average market prices for the company's main refrigerant products have increased as of January 23, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a showing price increases of 1.16%, 2.38%, and 3.53% respectively [6] Investment Recommendations - The report expresses strong confidence in the price increases of third-generation refrigerants and the cost advantages from the company's fluorine-chlorine linkage [7] - The profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 2.03 billion, 3.87 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 114.8%, 90.9%, and 41.5% [7]