Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) Minsheng Securities·2025-01-25 23:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from approximately 2.851 billion to 3.380 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.08% to 57.9% [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in both sales volume and average selling price of coal products, alongside increased costs due to changes in geological conditions at some mines [1]. - The company has successfully acquired exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite in the Xing County block, which is expected to benefit long-term development [2]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio since 2021, with cash dividend payout rates of 78.67%, 63.54%, and 67.07% from 2021 to 2023, indicating strong investment value [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected operating revenue is 48.622 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% from 2023, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 3.374 billion yuan, down 50.2% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [4][10]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 2.231 billion yuan and 2.518 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.44 yuan for 2026 [3][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance, with a slight increase in revenue and net profit in 2026 compared to 2025 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The acquisition of the Xing County exploration rights is expected to enhance the company's competitive advantage and market share, leveraging existing mining experience and infrastructure [2]. - The company’s strategy includes maintaining a high dividend payout, which is attractive for income-focused investors [2].