三只松鼠深度报告：短期有业绩，中期有空间，长期有成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience short-term performance, mid-term growth, and long-term potential, driven by offline distribution channel expansion and supply chain optimization [3][40] - The snack industry remains in a favorable state, with ongoing opportunities for growth through new channel penetration and product category expansion [2][37] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a manufacturing-based private label retailer, with nuts as its core product and a strong online market share [15] - The company has a clear ownership structure, with the founder holding a significant stake and extensive experience in the snack industry [16] Industry Insights - The snack sector is projected to maintain its favorable outlook through 2025, driven by hard discount channels and new product categories [2][33] - Traditional channels are undergoing self-reform to improve competitiveness, which may benefit the company's traditional business [2][36] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 104.53 billion, 135.94 billion, and 177.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.92%, 30.04%, and 30.22% respectively [4][12] - Expected net profit for the same period is projected at 4.10 billion, 5.76 billion, and 7.76 billion yuan, with growth rates of 86.67%, 40.31%, and 34.80% respectively [4][12] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds the second-largest market share in the nut industry, with a market share of 11.7% in 2024 [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its offline market presence, which currently lags behind its online performance [41] Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages and digital capabilities to enhance product adaptability across channels, aiming for comprehensive market coverage [47][53] - The strategy includes expanding product categories and enhancing the efficiency of distribution channels to drive sales growth [29][51]