Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Wancheng Group (300972.SZ) [1] Core Views - Wancheng Group is expected to achieve a revenue of 30-34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 223%-266%, primarily driven by the expansion of store numbers. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 240-300 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 83 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] - The company is exploring new business formats with the launch of "Youpin" discount supermarkets, which have expanded their SKU count from over 1800 to approximately 3000, enhancing product offerings and aiming to increase customer retention and average transaction value [5] - The snack wholesale industry continues to experience high growth, with Wancheng Group positioned as a market leader, benefiting from supply chain efficiency improvements and digital management advancements [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, Wancheng Group anticipates a revenue of 30-34 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240-300 million yuan, compared to a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023. The adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 210-270 million yuan [4] - The company forecasts Q4 2024 revenue of 93.87-133.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 156-216 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 26 million yuan in Q4 2023 [4] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its store network, which is a key driver of its revenue growth. The snack wholesale business is projected to generate 30-33 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 790-880 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 2.50%-2.75% [4] - The launch of the discount supermarket format aims to cater to community needs and enhance product variety, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.51, 2.66, and 4.28 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 67, 38, and 24 times [6] - The company is projected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 22.7% in 2024, improving to 23.0% and 22.0% in the following years [9]
万辰集团：公司事件点评报告：利润持续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业态