Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.56, reflecting a potential downside of 2.3% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to be under pressure, with same-store sales declining significantly across its brands in the fourth quarter. The Taier brand saw a 24.6% year-on-year decline, while the Jiumaojiu brand experienced an 18.5% drop. The company is actively adjusting its strategies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of March [7]. - The company is closing underperforming stores, with a net reduction of 20 Taier stores in the fourth quarter, primarily in mainland China. As of the end of 2024, the company will have 593 Taier direct-operated stores in mainland China [7]. - The company is shifting from a clear expansion strategy to a more cautious dynamic adjustment strategy, reflecting a cautious outlook on the industry environment. Despite this, the overseas business is developing steadily, contributing to long-term competitive advantages [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4,006 million in 2022 to RMB 6,958 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.3% from 2024 to 2026 [6][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 49 million in 2022 to RMB 659 million in 2026, with significant fluctuations in growth rates, including a projected 114.5% increase in 2025 [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.03 in 2022 to RMB 0.45 in 2026, indicating a recovery trend after a significant drop in 2024 [6][12]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a significant decline of 23.62% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.13 and a low of HKD 2.19 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 10.26 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4].
九毛九：公司表现持续承压，积极策略调整预计3月底落地